2012年1月4日星期三

They ranged from big names like Apple

A year ago I spoke to the good people at Thomson Reuters, who track analysts’ recommendations. I asked for all the recommendations across the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SPX +1.55%. Cheap burberry - designer bags, shoes, accessories, clothing outlet 2012.

Then I scanned for the top 10 — the stocks with the highest amount of “buy” and “outperform” ratings. These were the cool kids on the block, the best of the best of the best. Supposedly.

They ranged from big names like Apple and Google to Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO +4.29% , Agilent Technologies A +0.24% , Celgene CELG +0.20% and R.R. Donnelly & Sons RRD +4.57% .

How’d they do?

If you had invested $10,000 in each of these stocks a year ago, banked the dividends, and cashed out at the end of the year, you’d have actually lost money. You’d be down 3.5%, even before trading costs and taxes, meaning you’d have $96,500 left of your stake.

Meanwhile the S&P 500 overall ended the year even. In other words, you’d have been better off just owning an index fund.

So much for Wall Street!

Six of the “top 10” stocks actually lost you double-digits. The median fell 12%.

As I noted a year ago, this is something of a pattern: Over the previous five years — you can now make that six — Wall Street analysts “top 10” stock picks have actually earned you slightly less over time than the index.

Out of whimsy, I also looked at the reverse story: Wall Street’s most hated stocks, the ones the analysts told you to avoid. I screened the Thomson Reuters data for the stocks with the most “sell” recommendations and the fewest “buys.”

It produced an interesting miscellany, from Brown-Foreman BF.B +0.12% (maker of Jack Daniel’s) to drugs giant Eli Lilly LLY +0.58% , to retailer Sears Holdings SHLD -0.83% , to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A -0.02% .

So how’d they do for cheapburberryoutlet2012?

They fell 4.3% on average. In other words, the 10 stocks that analysts loved the most beat the stocks they hated the most by an average of less than 1%.

Wow! Those analysts sure are worth the money!

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